USDJPY US labor market continues to strengthen

USDJPY US labor market continues to strengthen. The USD/JPY pair corrects upwards, trading around 113.60. All attempts of the Japanese currency to reverse the trend were unsuccessful after the publication of national economic statistics.

Thus, the level of Japan’s Q3 GDP continued to decline, and the decrease in the by 0.9% MoM led to a decrease by 3.6% YoY, which is much worse than the 3.1% decrease expected by analysts. Consumer spending for the same period fell by 1.3% after rising by 0.9% earlier. Obviously, the refusal to ease the coronavirus restrictions in Japan could lead to an even greater slowdown in the economy in the last quarter of the year.

As for the American currency, the first signals that it will end the current trading week in an uptrend appeared. The JOLTS report on the number of open vacancies in the labor market unexpectedly pleased investors with an increase from 10.602M to 11.033M, which speaks of the gradual withdrawal of the United States from the fuel crisis, which even led to the unfreezing of strategic oil reserves.

Support and resistance

The asset corrects, forming a local correctional Expanding formation pattern. Technical indicators are in a state of uncertainty: indicator Alligator’s EMA fluctuations range has narrowed almost completely, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is forming new ascending bars, being in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 114.18, 115.47.

Support levels: 113.21, 112.04.

USDJPY US labor market continues to strengthen
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USDJPY correction before further growth – 16 February 2022

USDJPY correction before further growth

USDJPY correction before further growth. After reaching the level of 116.10, the USD/JPY pair went into a correction to get more profitable entry points for buy positions, however, the positions of the American currency at the moment look more attractive for investment than the yen. Quotations are supported by positive macroeconomic statistics from the US. Thus, the Core PPI for January rose by 0.8%, although analysts had expected a figure of 0.5%. PPI for January added 1.0%, which exceeded the market’s preliminary estimates twice.

St. Louis Fed Chairman James Bullard’s comments added confidence to US dollar buyers. In an interview with CNBC on Monday, he reaffirmed his view that the US Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates by 100 basis points over the next three meetings. According to the official, the last four reports on inflation have reflected its significant acceleration and justified decisive action by the country’s financial authorities by July 1.

Meanwhile, a negative trend has emerged in the Japanese economy: the country’s Q4 GDP amounted to 5.4% YoY, although analysts predicted growth by 5.8%. The indicator strengthened by 1.3% QoQ, which is also inferior to the preliminary market estimates of 1.4%. The volume of industrial production in December decreased by 1.0%, which confirmed the forecast of experts.

On Friday, February 18, traders will follow the publication of Japan’s nationwide Core CPI for January. A slight increase of 0.3% is expected. Before the release of these macroeconomic statistics, the USD/JPY pair may grow to 116.10.

Support and resistance

The long-term trend in the USD/JPY pair is upwards. After reaching the level of 116.10 last week, the instrument corrected to the area of ​​115.30 but this level was held, which led to a new upward impulse towards the breakout of 116.10.

The first target for the medium-term uptrend around ​​the January high at 116.25 was reached last week and the asset rushed to the target zone 4 (117.29–117.07). The nearest support levels from which long positions can be considered are at 115.03 and 114.31.

Resistance levels: 116.10, 117.00.

Support levels: 115.30, 114.30, 113.50.

USDJPY correction before further growth

USDJPY the US dollar began a rapid decline – 17 December 2021

USDJPY the US dollar began a rapid decline

USDJPY the US dollar began a rapid decline. USD/JPY is correcting, trading around 113.53. The yen reacted slightly to today’s decision by the Bank of Japan, which continued to pursue a policy of negative rates since, at the moment, it does not see a significant improvement in the economy, which would allow something to change.

The interest rate remained at the level of –0.10%, the purchase of Japanese government bonds (JGB) will continue without setting an upper limit, and their yield will remain near zero. The bank plans to acquire exchange-traded funds (ETFs) with a cap of 12T yen and Japanese real estate trusts (J-REITs) with a cap of 180B yen and 20T yen corporate bonds at least the end of March 2022. It follows from this that the regulator does not expect significant improvement in economic indicators, at least until spring, and the pressure on the yen will remain the same.

Tension around the dollar is growing, and for the first time since the beginning of December, the USD Index fell below 96 points after publication data on the labor market. Initial Jobless Claims rose to 206K after falling to 188K last week. Additional pressure on the American currency was exerted by a significant drop in the index of manufacturing activity from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, which reached a year low at 15.4 points after 39.0 points in the previous period.

Support and resistance

The asset corrects, forming a possible Head and shoulders reversal pattern. Technical indicators are in a state of uncertainty: indicator Alligator’s EMA fluctuations range narrowed almost completely, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms new upward bars, being close to the transition level.

Resistance levels: 114.10, 115.40.

Support levels: 113.20, 112.50.

USDJPY the US dollar began a rapid decline

The EURUSD pair corrects-Daily technical analysis November 24, 2021

The EURUSD pair corrects, trading around the level of 1.1231.

The EURUSD pair corrects, trading around the level of 1.1231.

The European currency received some support after the data on business activity in the EU was released. French Manufacturing PMI for November reached 54.6 points instead of 53.6 for October. A similar indicator in Germany was 57.6 points, which corresponds to 57.8 points a month earlier. Manufacturing PMI in the EU countries is at 58.6 points, higher than 58.3 points for the previous period. Service PMI in France increased to 58.2 points from 56.6 points earlier. The same figure in Germany was 53.4 points, up from 52.4 points earlier. Finally, the EU Service PMI stood at 56.6 points, significantly better than the 54.6 points for October.

The positive trend of the European currency could not reverse the downtrend of the pair, which is under pressure from the growing US dollar. Yesterday, the American currency index renewed its year’s high around 96.560, when it became known that the candidacy of the incumbent head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, was nominated for a second term. According to US President Joe Biden, the department under the leadership of Powell operates most effectively.

Support and resistance

On the global chart, the price moves below the support line of the global downtrend channel, and the sell signal from the indicators is strengthening: indicator Alligator’s EMA fluctuations range expands, and the AO oscillator histogram decreases in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1.1368, 1.1560.

Support levels: 1.1215, 1.1100.

The EURUSD pair corrects

USDCHF probability of a growth asset remains

USDCHF probability of a growth asset remains

USDCHF probability of a growth asset remains, After last week’s correction to the area of 0.9180–0.9160, USD/CHF quotes continue their upward trend against the background of the publication of data on a decrease in unemployment rate in the USA last month by 0.3%.

Last Friday, statistics on the US labor market were released. The dynamics of changes in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector disappointed investors and amounted to only 210K instead of the 550K predicted by analysts. However, the markets were able to recover from a short-term correction in the USD, playing back data that recorded a decrease in the unemployment rate in the country.

The indicator was 4.2% with a forecast of 4.5%. According to key indicators, the national economy continues to approach the pre-crisis levels of the beginning of last year, which has a strengthening effect on the US currency.

The long-term trend in USD/CHF is upward with the aim of growth near the November high of 0.9360. The key trend support is located at 0.9089.

The mid-term trend changed to a downward one last week after the breakdown of the key support at 0.9258–0.9247 and the price-fixing below it. Now the target for sales is target zone 2 (0.9147–0.9136). The price of USD/CHF is being adjusted and is trying to test the trend boundary of 0.9280-0.9269. The most optimal entrances to sales transactions are located in the area of 0.9280-0.9247.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 0.9360, 0.9434.

Support levels: 0.9119, 0.9089.

Short positions may be opened from the level of
0.9270 with targets at 0.9150 and stop-loss at
0.9305.

Implementation time: 7-10 days.
Long positions can be opened above 0.9305 with
target at 0.9400 and stop-loss at 0.9270.

Scenario:

Recommendation
SELL LIMIT
Entry point 0.9270
Take Profit 0.9150
Stop Loss 0.9305
Key levels
0.9089, 0.9119, 0.9360, 0.9434

Alternative Scenario:

Recommendation

BUY STOP
Entry point 0.9310
Take Profit 0.9400
Stop Loss 0.9270
Key levels 0.9089, 0.9119, 0.9360, 0.9434

USDCHF probability of a growth asset remains

Daily technical analysis November 04, 2021

GBP/USD Current level – 1.3640

The cable is found in a short-term downtrend, and the picture on the higher time frames is neutral. Current levels are around the first daily resistance between 1.3670 – 1.3690. Expectations remain positive, at least until the support of 1.3575 is breached. A meeting of the Bank of England on its interest rate decision (12:00 GMT) is expected today, and a potential spark in market volatility could blast off prices towards 1.3830. The market is likely to remain choppy performance-wise until the time of the event.

resistance
intradayintraweek
1.36701.3800
1.37601.3830
support
intradayintraweek
1.35751.3500
1.35001.3400

Daily technical analysis October 20, 2021

EUR/USD Current level – 1.1638

After the successful breach of the resistance at around 1.1623, there is a reversal of the trend in the currency pair. The sentiment remains positive – for continued growth and an attack of the resistance zone between 1.1668 and 1.1687. If this zone is successfully breached, the next target for the bulls would likely be the area at around 1.1750. The first daily support for the bulls is 1.1623, followed by the key level of 1.1582. Today, an increase in activity can be expected around the announcement of the consumer price index data for the euro area at 09:00 GMT.

resistance
intradayintraweek
1.16401.1750
1.16871.1800
support
intradayintraweek
1.15821.1410
1.15281.1280