USDCHF investors are waiting for the decision of the FOMC

USDCHF investors are waiting for the decision of the FOMC. The US currency shows flat trading dynamics against the Swiss franc during the Asian session on January 26, holding near a two-week high of 0.9175 and waiting for new drivers to move.

Activity on the market remains restrained, as market participants prefer to wait for the publication of today’s minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting. In January, no changes in monetary policy parameters are expected, but forecasts for the near future will be extremely important. The agency is close to launching an interest rate hike cycle, and the first step on this path could be taken as early as March. In total, four adjustments of the indicator are expected this year and operations to reduce the balance of the US Federal Reserve. Today’s department decision will play a key role in determining the dynamics of the USD/CHF pair.

On Wednesday, traders will also follow the US statistics on new home sales for December. Forecasts suggest a moderate indicator acceleration from the previous 0.744M to 0.760M.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands show ambiguous dynamics on the daily chart: the price range narrows, indicating the multidirectional nature of last week’s trading. MACD grows, keeping a relatively strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic demonstrates similar dynamics, being located slightly above the middle of its working area.

The current readings of technical indicators do not contradict the further development of corrective growth in the short and/or ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.9200, 0.9220, 0.9250, 0.9276.

Support levels: 0.9157, 0.9125, 0.9100, 0.9073.

USDCHF investors are waiting for the decision of the FOMC
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NZDUSD fixing long positions is a catalyst for a price correction – 01 February 2022

NZDUSD fixing long positions is a catalyst for a price correction

NZDUSD fixing long positions is a catalyst for a price correction. After reaching the main selling target in the area of 0.6540, NZD/USD is reversing into a correction with the target of 0.6700 against the background of the weakening of the US dollar, which is falling from the high of 97.430 in the USD Index, reached last Friday, to the levels of 96.500-96.300 today. The negative trend is due to weak macroeconomic statistics published in the US on January 28.

Michigan Consumer Expectations Index in January turned out to be lower than preliminary estimates, amounting to 64.1 points against the projected 65.8 points. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for January also disappointed investors and amounted to 67.2 points against the forecast at 68.7 points. The release of negative statistics probably pushed US dollar buyers to fix long positions, which caused a correction in the markets. Traders should keep in mind that in March the US Fed may adjust the interest rate from 0.25% to 0.50%, which, in turn, can push the USD Index to new highs around 98.600-98.400.

Due to the difference in the monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the US Federal Reserve, NZD/USD is likely to fall again with the target of 0.6400 after the correction.

Support and resistance

The long-term trend in NZD/USD is downward. Now a correction is being developed with the target of 0.6700, after reaching which it is worth considering new sales of the asset with the target at 0.6540, and in the case of breaking it down, the movement will continue to 0.6400. Traders should pay attention to the readings of the RSI indicator, which has generated a Divergence signal, which is a reversal pattern that suggests the development of a correction to a downtrend.

The mid-term trend is downward. Last week, traders broke through the target zone 3 (0.6648–0.6629). The next sell target is target zone 4 (0.6458–0.6439).

Resistance levels: 0.6700, 0.6864, 0.7055.

Support levels: 0.6540, 0.6400.

NZDUSD fixing long positions is a catalyst for a price correction

USDCAD Canadian inflation hits 1991 levels – 18 February 2022

USDCAD Canadian inflation hits 1991 levels

USDCAD Canadian inflation hits 1991 levels. Against the backdrop of Canadian macroeconomic statistics, the USD/CAD pair shows local sideways dynamics, trading at 1.2691.

According to the January report, Canada’s consumer price index rose by 0.9% MoM instead of 0.6% expected, which contributed to the growth of the annual rate to 5.1%, which is higher than 4.8% in December. The same index, excluding prices for raw materials and food products, was 4.3%, rising from 4.0% a month earlier. According to a report released Wednesday by the National Bureau of Statistics, Canada’s inflation rate rose to 5.1% last year, the highest since September 1991. With labor market indicators, this growth is not as critical as in the US, and the Bank of Canada has the time and opportunity to control the situation.

The American currency continues to trade without pronounced dynamics, as declines due to ambiguous macroeconomic statistics replace the rises almost the next day. The current local weakening is associated with another increase in the number of people receiving unemployment benefits, which this week amounted to 248K against 225K a week earlier. Analysts had expected a decline to 219K, and the final result disappointed the market. We should also note a significant reduction in the index of manufacturing activity from the Philadelphia Fed, which fell to 16.0 points in February from 23.2 points a month earlier.

Support and resistance

On the global chart, the price moves within the local triangle pattern. Technical indicators are in the state of a local buy signal: the range of EMA fluctuations on the Alligator indicator is directed upwards, and the AO oscillator histogram forms ascending bars in the buying zone.

Support levels: 1.2656, 1.2520.

Resistance levels: 1.2747, 1.2880.

USDCAD Canadian inflation hits 1991 levels

USDJPY US labor market continues to strengthen – 09 December 2021

USDJPY US labor market continues to strengthen

USDJPY US labor market continues to strengthen. The USD/JPY pair corrects upwards, trading around 113.60. All attempts of the Japanese currency to reverse the trend were unsuccessful after the publication of national economic statistics.

Thus, the level of Japan’s Q3 GDP continued to decline, and the decrease in the by 0.9% MoM led to a decrease by 3.6% YoY, which is much worse than the 3.1% decrease expected by analysts. Consumer spending for the same period fell by 1.3% after rising by 0.9% earlier. Obviously, the refusal to ease the coronavirus restrictions in Japan could lead to an even greater slowdown in the economy in the last quarter of the year.

As for the American currency, the first signals that it will end the current trading week in an uptrend appeared. The JOLTS report on the number of open vacancies in the labor market unexpectedly pleased investors with an increase from 10.602M to 11.033M, which speaks of the gradual withdrawal of the United States from the fuel crisis, which even led to the unfreezing of strategic oil reserves.

Support and resistance

The asset corrects, forming a local correctional Expanding formation pattern. Technical indicators are in a state of uncertainty: indicator Alligator’s EMA fluctuations range has narrowed almost completely, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is forming new ascending bars, being in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 114.18, 115.47.

Support levels: 113.21, 112.04.

USDJPY US labor market continues to strengthen

NZDUSD trading volumes began to decline – 22 December 2021

NZDUSD trading volumes began to decline

NZDUSD trading volumes began to decline. The New Zealand currency is correcting against the US dollar on the background of positive macroeconomic statistics and is now near 0.6746.

International trade continues to grow. As of November, New Zealand’s imports rose to 6.73B NZ dollars and exports reached 5.86B NZ dollars. The trade balance in November amounted to -864M NZ dollars, and in annual terms, the figure was fixed at -6.040B NZ dollars.

The positive dynamics of the recovery of the national economy can be traced by statistics of Credit Card Spending: in November, the figure was -0.1%, which is significantly better than -5.2% shown a month earlier. Thus, despite the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, the indicators continue to improve with confidence, supporting the exchange rate of the New Zealand currency.

The US dollar remains at its opening levels for the week, just above 96.500 in the USD Index. Trading volumes dropped markedly due to investors leaving for the Christmas holidays. Perhaps the only news that could change the rate of the US currency was a bill to allocate 2T US dollars to support the national economy, but, according to the leader of the majority in the US Senate Chuck Schumer, Democrats will consider this issue only in 2022.

Support and resistance

Quotes of NZD/USD are correcting within the next downward wave of the global downward channel. Technical indicators hold a stable sell signal, but do not exclude corrective growth: the range of the Alligator indicator EMAs fluctuations continues to narrow down and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms local ascending bars being in the sales area.

Support levels: 0.6700, 0.6500.

Resistance levels: 0.6806, 0.7020.

NZDUSD trading volumes began to decline

GBPUSD British currency is trying to grow 07 January 2022

GBPUSD British currency is trying to grow

GBPUSD British currency is trying to grow. GBP/USD is developing the upward trading dynamics against the background of the depreciation of the US dollar and is currently at around 1.3546.

The pound quotes reacted with growth to the statements of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson that the high rates of revaccination of the population make it possible to avoid severe restrictive measures and the introduction of a lockdown is not planned in the near future, despite the fact that the UK, like many other European states, is faced with another wave of coronavirus caused by the Omicron mutation. According to Johnson, an increase in the incidence will be observed in the coming weeks, and the load on the national health system will increase significantly, but the country, in his opinion, will be able to overcome the fourth wave of the epidemic without resorting to quarantine.

The authorities’ refusal to tighten sanitary standards has inspired investors, who hope that the epidemiological situation will not affect the pace of economic recovery. The pound was also supported by the December data on business activity indices: in the services sector, the indicator was 53.6 points, which is higher than the 53.2 points predicted by analysts, as well as the composite PMI index, which showed absolutely identical values.

The positions of the US dollar slightly corrected after the indicator of Initial Jobless Claims again exceeded the threshold of 200K, amounting to 207K against the background of 197K expected by analysts. The number of Continuing Jobless Claims also increased to 1.754M, higher than the market’s preliminary estimates of 1.688M. The final data on Nonfarm Payrolls are due today and if the number of jobs falls below the forecast, the US dollar may continue the downtrend.

Support and resistance

GBP/USD is trading within the global downtrend channel, having approached the resistance line. Technical indicators are holding a signal to open long positions: the fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator is above the signal line, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is trading in the buy zone, forming ascending bars.

Support levels: 1.3487, 1.3200.

Resistance levels: 1.3610, 1.3838.

GBPUSD British currency is trying to grow

Daily technical analysis 11.10.2020

EUR/USD Current level – 1.1819

The common European currency’s appreciation against the Greenback, which we observed in the past couple of days, was halted yesterday by the resistance at 1.1920. At the time of writing, the currency pair is looking to reach the support around the 1.1800 zone. If the support at 1.1800 holds, then the bullish sentiment would be retained and the EUR/USD should attempt another test of 1.1920, possibly followed by a test of the local high at 1.2010. Volatility could pick up after the announcement of the German ZEW economic sentiment at 10:00 GMT.

resistance
intradayintraweek
1.18801.2010
1.19201.2010
support
intradayintraweek
1.18001.1700
1.17001.1626