USDCHF Swiss economy shows signs of a slowdown – 01 March 2022


USDCHF Swiss economy shows signs of a slowdown

USDCHF Swiss economy shows signs of a slowdown. The USDCHF pair shows a downward trend, trading at 0.9181. The franc resists the growth of the dollar, although investors perceived the latest macroeconomic data from Switzerland as contradictory.

Thus, the national economy shows a slowdown: according to January data, quarterly GDP rose by 0.3% after increasing by 1.9% a month earlier. The negative dynamics were also reflected in the annual rate, which reached 3.7% instead of 3.8% a month earlier. Meanwhile, the index of leading economic indicators also lowered the Swiss Economic Institute (KOF): the February figure was 105.0 points against 107.5 points a month earlier. Strengthening of positions was demonstrated only by the January retail sales volume, which increased to 5.1% after falling by 0.5% in December.

The index of the US currency began to decline slowly after yesterday’s trading reached a yearly high of around 97.350. Investors fear that unprecedented economic sanctions against Russia could harm the global economy and provoke even more disruptions in the supply of raw materials and goods than they were during the peak of the incidence of the Delta strain of coronavirus. Today, February data on the state of the US manufacturing sector will be published. The business activity index may rise to 57.5 points from 55.5 points a month earlier.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the price moves within the global side channel, gradually approaching the support line. Technical indicators remain in a state of uncertainty: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator is close to the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram stays close to the transition level.

Resistance levels: 0.9220, 0.9370.

Support levels: 0.9155, 0.9080.

USDCHF Swiss economy shows signs of a slowdown

USDCAD Canadian inflation hits 1991 levels – 18 February 2022

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USDCAD Canadian inflation hits 1991 levels

USDCAD Canadian inflation hits 1991 levels. Against the backdrop of Canadian macroeconomic statistics, the USD/CAD pair shows local sideways dynamics, trading at 1.2691.

According to the January report, Canada’s consumer price index rose by 0.9% MoM instead of 0.6% expected, which contributed to the growth of the annual rate to 5.1%, which is higher than 4.8% in December. The same index, excluding prices for raw materials and food products, was 4.3%, rising from 4.0% a month earlier. According to a report released Wednesday by the National Bureau of Statistics, Canada’s inflation rate rose to 5.1% last year, the highest since September 1991. With labor market indicators, this growth is not as critical as in the US, and the Bank of Canada has the time and opportunity to control the situation.

The American currency continues to trade without pronounced dynamics, as declines due to ambiguous macroeconomic statistics replace the rises almost the next day. The current local weakening is associated with another increase in the number of people receiving unemployment benefits, which this week amounted to 248K against 225K a week earlier. Analysts had expected a decline to 219K, and the final result disappointed the market. We should also note a significant reduction in the index of manufacturing activity from the Philadelphia Fed, which fell to 16.0 points in February from 23.2 points a month earlier.

Support and resistance

On the global chart, the price moves within the local triangle pattern. Technical indicators are in the state of a local buy signal: the range of EMA fluctuations on the Alligator indicator is directed upwards, and the AO oscillator histogram forms ascending bars in the buying zone.

Support levels: 1.2656, 1.2520.

Resistance levels: 1.2747, 1.2880.

USDCAD Canadian inflation hits 1991 levels

USDJPY correction before further growth – 16 February 2022

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USDJPY correction before further growth

USDJPY correction before further growth. After reaching the level of 116.10, the USD/JPY pair went into a correction to get more profitable entry points for buy positions, however, the positions of the American currency at the moment look more attractive for investment than the yen. Quotations are supported by positive macroeconomic statistics from the US. Thus, the Core PPI for January rose by 0.8%, although analysts had expected a figure of 0.5%. PPI for January added 1.0%, which exceeded the market’s preliminary estimates twice.

St. Louis Fed Chairman James Bullard’s comments added confidence to US dollar buyers. In an interview with CNBC on Monday, he reaffirmed his view that the US Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates by 100 basis points over the next three meetings. According to the official, the last four reports on inflation have reflected its significant acceleration and justified decisive action by the country’s financial authorities by July 1.

Meanwhile, a negative trend has emerged in the Japanese economy: the country’s Q4 GDP amounted to 5.4% YoY, although analysts predicted growth by 5.8%. The indicator strengthened by 1.3% QoQ, which is also inferior to the preliminary market estimates of 1.4%. The volume of industrial production in December decreased by 1.0%, which confirmed the forecast of experts.

On Friday, February 18, traders will follow the publication of Japan’s nationwide Core CPI for January. A slight increase of 0.3% is expected. Before the release of these macroeconomic statistics, the USD/JPY pair may grow to 116.10.

Support and resistance

The long-term trend in the USD/JPY pair is upwards. After reaching the level of 116.10 last week, the instrument corrected to the area of ​​115.30 but this level was held, which led to a new upward impulse towards the breakout of 116.10.

The first target for the medium-term uptrend around ​​the January high at 116.25 was reached last week and the asset rushed to the target zone 4 (117.29–117.07). The nearest support levels from which long positions can be considered are at 115.03 and 114.31.

Resistance levels: 116.10, 117.00.

Support levels: 115.30, 114.30, 113.50.

USDJPY correction before further growth