USD/JPY Current level – 104.63
The currency pair breached the support level of 104.90 on Friday and, at the start of the new week, the expectations are for the Greenback to depreciate against the yen, pushing the pair towards a test of the important support at 104.10. In the positive direction, the first resistance lies at 105.33.
| resistance | |
|---|---|
| intraday | intraweek |
| 105.33 | 105.33 |
| 105.70 | 104.87 |
| support | |
|---|---|
| intraday | intraweek |
| 104.39 | 104.09 |
| 104.10 | 103.64 |
EUR/USD Current level – 1.1912
The common European currency continues to depreciate against the dollar as yet another support level, this time the one at 1.1957, was easily violated at the end of last week. The forecast is for the sell-off to continue, pushing the currency pair towards a test of the support at 1.1860. In the positive direction, the key resistance level is 1.2028. This week, investors’ attention will be focused on the European Central Bank interest rate decision (Thursday; 12:45 GMT) and the CPI data for the U.S. (Wednesday; 13:30 GMT).
| resistance | |
|---|---|
| intraday | intraweek |
| 1.1960 | 1.2104 |
| 1.2028 | 1.2148 |
| support | |
|---|---|
| intraday | intraweek |
| 1.1900 | 1.1800 |
| 1.1800 | 1.1750 |
USD/JPY Current level – 113.69
The test of the support of 113.21 was unsuccessful as the dollar recovered some of its recent losses against the yen and, during the early hours of today`s trading, the pair is trading just below the resistance of 113.70. If the bears re-enter the market, a new and successful attempt at breaching the mentioned support could easily strengthen the negative expectations for the future path of the USD/JPY and lead to a decline towards the zone of 111.96. The first target for the bulls is the level of 113.70, followed by the resistance of 114.10.
| resistance | |
|---|---|
| intraday | intraweek |
| 113.70 | 114.50 |
| 114.10 | 116.00 |
| support | |
|---|---|
| intraday | intraweek |
| 113.20 | 111.50 |
| 111.96 | 111.50 |
NZDUSD the instrument is weakening. Due to the growth of the US dollar, the NZD/USD pair corrects, trading near the level of 0.6822.
The number of new cases of infection with the Delta strain in New Zealand is on the rise, and Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has announced that the country would not be able to completely get rid of the pandemic, so there was little point in restrictions, and 0othey would be lifted. As for the economic indicators, a foreign trade report was recently published. According to the October data, the volume of exports increased to 5.35B dollars, while imports amounted to 6.64B. The trade balance reached –1.286B MoM, which is better than –2.206B for September, and –4.920B YoY, down from –4.110B a month earlier.
The American currency index is growing, reaching the level of 96.700. Against the background of a hiatus in trading due to Thanksgiving Day, the key growth drivers for the dollar are the news of the re-election for a second term of the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, and the largest decline in the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the last 50 years: the figure fell to 199K.
Support and resistance
The asset left the ascending channel, breaking the support line. Technical indicators keep a stable sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator is below the signal line, and the histogram of the AO oscillator trades in the sell zone, forming downward bars.
Resistance levels: 0.6860, 0.7040.
Support levels: 0.6800, 0.6600.
GBP/USD Current level – 1.3781
During last week, the Cable was trading in the range between 1.3762 and 1.3829, and neither the bulls nor the bears were able to take control and get the pair out of this channel. However, the expectations are for the pair to re-test and violate the upper border and a key resistance level of 1.3829, which would take the pair towards the 1.3900-1.4000 zone.
| resistance | |
|---|---|
| intraday | intraweek |
| 1.3830 | 1.3900 |
| 1.3900 | 1.4000 |
| support | |
|---|---|
| intraday | intraweek |
| 1.3762 | 1.3666 |
| 1.3713 | 1.3570 |
AUDUSD US inflation continues to break records. Due to skyrocketing inflation in the US, the AUD/USD pair corrects upwards, trading at 0.7173.
Although the next peak in the incidence of COVID-19 in Australia can be considered passed, the statistics on new infections remain quite high: last week, the figure hovered around 1450 cases per day, which does not allow the authorities of some regions to ease quarantine restrictions. As stated by the head of the Bank of Australia, Philip Lowe, it prevents the economy from recovering at a higher pace, which, in turn, keeps the national currency from more dynamic growth.
The US dollar has been moving within a narrow sideways range since the end of November. According to the latest data, the rate of inflation in the United States accelerated, and the index of the core CPI reached 4.9% YoY. The consumer price index renewed a multi-year record, rising to 6.8% from 6.2% a month earlier. Judging by these data, the US Federal Reserve has practically no choice: the regulator will have to quickly reduce the volume of the quantitative easing (QE) program and raise the interest rate. These actions can be announced at the next meeting, held on Wednesday.
Support and resistance
On the global chart, the price forms a downtrend, within which a reversal is being prepared. Technical indicators keep a weakening sell signal: indicator Alligator’s EMA fluctuations range narrows, and the AO histogram forms upward bars.
Resistance levels: 0.7222, 0.7458.
Support levels: 0.7115, 0.6992.
GBP/USD Current level – 1.3379
The Cable is in a clear downtrend and, in the early hours of today, prices gravitate around the local support of 1.3360. Due to the shrinking activity, a corrective wave with a target of around 1.3500 can be expected. The first daily resistance for the pair is 1.3427. The current expectations are for new declines and a breach of 1.3360 would pave the road towards 1.3200. A change in sentiment can only be expected if prices stay above 1.3550.
| resistance | |
|---|---|
| intraday | intraweek |
| 1.3427 | 1.3600 |
| 1.3550 | 1.3690 |
| support | |
|---|---|
| intraday | intraweek |
| 1.3360 | 1.3200 |
| 1.3290 | 1.3200 |