AUDUSD Australian economy is recovering steadily – 10 February 2022

AUDUSD Australian economy is recovering steadily

AUDUSD Australian economy is recovering steadily. The Australian currency demonstrates relative stability against the background of the neutrality of the US dollar, currently forming a local uptrend and trading around 0.7172.

Macroeconomic statistics coming from Australia indicate that the country’s economy continues to recover from the effects of the coronavirus pandemic confidently. According to the largest bank in the country, Westpac Banking Corporation, the consumer sentiment index for February may correct too –1.3% from –2.0%, and the expected inflation, according to the forecasts of the University of Melbourne, will rise to 4.6% from 4.4% month previously. Meanwhile, the index of building permits issued for January added 8.2%, which coincided with preliminary market estimates and exceeded the December increase of 2.6%. Thus, the probability that the Australian dollar will end the trading week with positive dynamics is quite high.

The situation in the currency pair may seriously change today after the publication of inflation data in the US. Investors are closely watching the dynamics of consumer prices in light of the possible start of a cycle of interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve in March this year. According to analysts, the figure will rise to 7.3%, surpassing the December value of 7.0%. If the forecast is implemented, the probability of a rate increase will increase significantly, locally supporting the US dollar, which has been trading almost neutral since Monday.

Support and resistance

On the global chart, the price moves within a long downtrend. Technical indicators are in the state of a sell signal, which is already ready to change to an upward one: the EMA fluctuation range on the Alligator indicator is actively narrowing, and the AO histogram forms upward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 0.7227, 0.7415.

Support levels: 0.7100, 0.6980.

AUDUSD Australian economy is recovering steadily

USDJPY The dollar is actively losing value – 03 February 2022

USDJPY The dollar is actively losing value

USDJPY The dollar is actively losing value. Due to the weakening rate of the American currency, the USD/JPY pair corrects downwards, trading around the level of 114.47.

The Japanese currency is moving without pronounced dynamics amid a worsening epidemiological situation due to the rapid spread of the Omicron coronavirus strain. Over the past day in Tokyo, 21.5K, new infection cases were detected in the population, another record since the pandemic’s beginning. However, the country’s authorities have said that no emergency regime is planned, and although medical institutions have reported that hospital bed occupancy is already over 50%, the situation is under control. As for macroeconomic statistics, there are no reasons for positive either: the January PMI index in the services sector fell to 47.6 points from 52.1 points in December, and the indicator dynamics have remained negative since last autumn.

The US dollar index is falling, having reached local support of around 96.000. Investors were extremely disappointed by Nonfarm Payrolls, the outflow of which amounted to 301K with a projected increase of 207K workers. The indicator turned negative for the first time since January last year when a value of –78K. Today, data on jobless claims will be published, and the labor market expects a significant increase in new claims, which may negatively affect the dollar dynamics.

Support and resistance

The asset is being corrected within the global upward channel. Technical indicators are again in a state of uncertainty: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are preparing to cross the signal line downwards, and the AO oscillator histogram is again forming down bars.

Resistance levels: 114.82, 116.20.

Support levels: 114.14, 112.75.

USDJPY The dollar is actively losing value

NZDUSD fixing long positions is a catalyst for a price correction – 01 February 2022

NZDUSD fixing long positions is a catalyst for a price correction

NZDUSD fixing long positions is a catalyst for a price correction. After reaching the main selling target in the area of 0.6540, NZD/USD is reversing into a correction with the target of 0.6700 against the background of the weakening of the US dollar, which is falling from the high of 97.430 in the USD Index, reached last Friday, to the levels of 96.500-96.300 today. The negative trend is due to weak macroeconomic statistics published in the US on January 28.

Michigan Consumer Expectations Index in January turned out to be lower than preliminary estimates, amounting to 64.1 points against the projected 65.8 points. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for January also disappointed investors and amounted to 67.2 points against the forecast at 68.7 points. The release of negative statistics probably pushed US dollar buyers to fix long positions, which caused a correction in the markets. Traders should keep in mind that in March the US Fed may adjust the interest rate from 0.25% to 0.50%, which, in turn, can push the USD Index to new highs around 98.600-98.400.

Due to the difference in the monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the US Federal Reserve, NZD/USD is likely to fall again with the target of 0.6400 after the correction.

Support and resistance

The long-term trend in NZD/USD is downward. Now a correction is being developed with the target of 0.6700, after reaching which it is worth considering new sales of the asset with the target at 0.6540, and in the case of breaking it down, the movement will continue to 0.6400. Traders should pay attention to the readings of the RSI indicator, which has generated a Divergence signal, which is a reversal pattern that suggests the development of a correction to a downtrend.

The mid-term trend is downward. Last week, traders broke through the target zone 3 (0.6648–0.6629). The next sell target is target zone 4 (0.6458–0.6439).

Resistance levels: 0.6700, 0.6864, 0.7055.

Support levels: 0.6540, 0.6400.

NZDUSD fixing long positions is a catalyst for a price correction